Step 4 Objective

Use the language associated with probability to discuss events, including those with equally likely outcomes.

Examples of what pupils should know and be able to do

Pupils should be able to form opinions when the event has two equally likely outcomes, e.g. throwing a coin or dropping a picture and looking at which way up it lands.

Move on to events with more than two possible outcomes, e.g. rolling a dice.

Probing questions

Which is more likely a head or a tail?

Am I more likely to roll a 2 than a 6? Can I expect to roll more even numbers or more odd numbers?

Which number do you think will occur most frequently?

What if pupils find this a barrier?

Have enough coins, pictures or dice to show all possibilities, e.g. use six dice and put them out so that each of 1 to 6 is shown on top. Explain that if we were to roll one dice sixty times we would expect to get ten of each number. Now which is more likely, 2 or 6? How many 2s would there be? How many 6s, etc.?