Examples of what pupils should know and be able to do
Say whether an everyday event is likely or unlikely to happen, e.g. match one of the words Likely, Unlikely, Certain or Uncertain to statements such as:
- It will snow next Christmas.
- I will watch television tonight.
- It will get dark tonight.
Probing questions
How sure are you?
Do you think that ... is likely?
How do you know?
Ask me a question which it is likely I won't know the answer.
What if pupils find this a barrier?
Bring the ideas to a more local level.
Discuss the throwing of a coin where outcome can be witnessed. Use a pack of digit cards numbered one to ten and ask whether you are likely to choose a particular card if they are all placed face-down.
Begin to move the situation to what they think they are likely to have to eat later and turn their suggestion round to what chance there is that they might be correct.